Heavyweight Main Event: #5 Tom Aspinall vs. #10 Marcin Tybura
Preview
In the main event of UFC Fight Night 224, English heavyweight Tom Aspinall returns to the octagon just a day short of a year’s absence after suffering a knee injury 15 seconds into the main event against Curtis Blaydes at UFC Fight Night 208.
Aspinall suffered MCL and meniscus tears, and ACL damage after attempting a hard leg kick on Blaydes.
Prior to the TKO via knee injury defeat, Aspinall was undefeated in the UFC (5-0) and earned four Performance of the Night bonuses.
As Aspinall looks to bounce back to pre-injury form, Marcin Tybura, a seven-year veteran of the UFC, looks to win his third straight UFC fight. This contest will be Tybura’s eighteenth UFC contest (11-6).
Tybura has had win previous streaks of five fights and another one of three fights in the UFC, but has failed to capitalize on those streaks and win the big matches when it matters most. In his only main event 5-round contest, back in 2017, he lost to Fabrício Werdum by unanimous decision (50-49, 50-49, and 49-45).
Aspinall, on the other hand, was on an absolute tear in the UFC prior to his injury. He had three first round submission victories, a first round TKO, and a second round TKO in his five fights.
The injury to his knee has ignited a tremendous amount of self-confidence and reflection for Aspinall. He has been quoted as saying he is recovered, training with more purpose, and rededicated to achieving greatness.
Tale of the Tape
| Fighter | Tom Aspinall | Marcin Tybura |
| Age | 30 | 37 |
| Height | 6-5 | 6-3 |
| Weight | 251 | 249 |
| Reach | 78″ | 78″ |
| UFC Win/Loss | 5-1 | 11-6 |
| MMA Win/Loss | 12-3 | 24-7 |
Shared Opponents
Alexander Volkov (10-4 in UFC)
Marcin Tybura lost to Volkov by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) at UFC 267.
Following his defeat of Tybura, Volkov fought Tom Aspinall in the main event at UFC Fight Night 204. Aspinall made quick work of Volkov with a first round straight armbar submission on his way to winning a Performance of the Night bonus.
Sergey Spivak (7-3 in UFC)
Both Tybura and Aspinall defeated Spivak in their matchup with him, however, in different fashion. Tybura won a unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) while Aspinall made short work of Spivak by knocking him out half way through the first round with elbows and punches, earning another Performance of the Night bonus.
Andrei Arlovski (23-15-1 in UFC)
Similar to their fights against Spivak, Aspinall and Tybura both took down the former UFC Heavyweight Champion Andrei Arlovski in similar fashion. Aspinall, earning Performance of the Night honors again, submitted Arlovski in the second round with a rear naked choke and Tybura won a unanimous decision (29-28, 29-27, 28-27).
Advanced Stats
Advanced stats, courtesy of UFCStats.com, show significant advantages for Aspinall in all four major categories.
Striking:
The English heavyweight lands more than twice the amount of significant strikes per minute (7.41 to 3.5) with his strike accuracy (65%) 17% better than Tybura’s (48%).
Defense:
Aspinall has a perfect takedown defense (100%) and his strike defense (64%) see’s opponents missing quite often. Tybura also holds his own on takedown defense (79%) but his strike defense (55%) allows more significant blows to connect.
Takedowns:
This could be the most lopsided advanced stats of the contest. Aspinall averages 4 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 100% success rate while Tybura averages 1.33 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 33% success rate.
Submissions:
Tybura has yet to submit someone in his UFC career and only averages .1% submission attempts per 15 minutes. Aspinall averages 2 submission attempts per 15 minutes and has been successful in submitting two fighters in the UFC.
Prediction
As of July 14, the odds for this match are Aspinall (-500) and Tybura (+350). Vegas has this one right.
The only unknown is Aspinall’s health after coming off of a knee injury. Prior to that injury, he looked well on his way to becoming UFC’s next contender for the UFC Heavyweight Championship once the division got passed the Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic finish up their big money prize fights.
Tybura is a solid heavyweight, but I’m afraid his time has come and gone. He strings together victories but whenever matchmakers test him, he fails. Additionally, six of his last eight fights ended in a decision. If he wants to win this fight, he will not have that luxury.
This is a good return match for Aspinall and credit to the matchmakers for that. In Tybura, they give Aspinall a credible ranked opponent, on a win streak, to showcase his skills against and return to the main stage of the Heavyweight division.
Tom Aspinall defeats Marcin Tybura by TKO in the 2nd round
